{
  "updated": "2026-08-16T13:15:48.359Z",
  "pipeline": "github-actions",
  "note": "Diperbarui otomatis oleh .github/workflows/refresh.yml (scripts/fetch-macro.mjs). Penarikan multi-provider; kegagalan tarik mempertahankan nilai lama dan menandainya stale — lihat field 'fetchStatus'.",
  "baseline": {
    "date": "2024-10-20",
    "label": "Pelantikan Prabowo–Gibran",
    "usdidr": 15500,
    "ihsg": 7760,
    "approx": true,
    "note": "Pembulatan rentang perdagangan pekan pelantikan, bukan penutupan satu hari. Perubahan indikatif ±1 poin persentase."
  },
  "series": [
    {
      "key": "ihsg",
      "name": "IHSG",
      "value": 6401.89,
      "asof": "2026-08-16",
      "changePct": -17.5,
      "note": "≈7.760 → 6.401,89",
      "cadence": "harian",
      "status": "crit",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EJKSE"
    },
    {
      "key": "usdidr",
      "name": "Rupiah vs USD",
      "value": 17820,
      "asof": "2026-08-16",
      "changePct": -13,
      "note": "≈Rp15.500 → Rp17.820 · rupiah kehilangan 13% nilainya",
      "cadence": "harian",
      "status": "crit",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IDR%3DX"
    },
    {
      "key": "ikk",
      "name": "Indeks keyakinan konsumen",
      "value": 116.8,
      "asof": "2026-07-31",
      "changePct": -3.4,
      "note": "≈121 → 116,8 · turun 3 bln beruntun",
      "cadence": "bulanan",
      "status": "serious",
      "source_url": "https://market.bisnis.com/read/20260811/93/1995165/nilai-tukar-rupiah-terhadap-dolar-as-hari-ini-11-agustus-2026"
    },
    {
      "key": "reserves",
      "name": "Cadangan devisa",
      "value": 144,
      "asof": "2026-07-31",
      "changePct": -1.5,
      "note": "US$146,2 mrd → ≈US$144 mrd",
      "cadence": "bulanan",
      "status": "warn",
      "source_url": "https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/ruang-media/news-release/Pages/sp_2810726.aspx"
    }
  ],
  "watchlist": [
    {
      "name": "Approval rating",
      "value": "51,1%",
      "dir": "down",
      "cadence": "Kuartalan",
      "status": "crit",
      "why": "Di bawah 50% jadi argumen politik tersendiri.",
      "source_url": "https://www.kompas.tv/nasional/682445/survei-smrc-kepuasan-publik-terhadap-kinerja-presiden-prabowo-51-1-persen"
    },
    {
      "name": "H2H vs Dedi Mulyadi",
      "value": "28,3%",
      "dir": "down",
      "cadence": "Kuartalan",
      "status": "crit",
      "why": "Metrik paling tajam — menghapus fragmentasi kandidat.",
      "source_url": "https://www.liputan6.com/news/read/8257280/survei-terbaru-smrc-ini-sosok-capres-dengan-elektabilitas-tertinggi"
    },
    {
      "name": "Dispersi antar-lembaga",
      "value": "32,0 pts",
      "dir": "up",
      "cadence": "Kuartalan",
      "status": "crit",
      "why": "Ketika pengukuran kehilangan otoritas, klaim tandingan terbuka.",
      "derived": true
    },
    {
      "name": "USD/IDR",
      "value": "≈17.820",
      "dir": "down",
      "cadence": "Harian",
      "status": "crit",
      "why": "Rp18.000 ambang psikologis.",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IDR%3DX"
    },
    {
      "name": "IHSG",
      "value": "6.401,89",
      "dir": "down",
      "cadence": "Harian",
      "status": "crit",
      "why": "Kepercayaan modal terhadap arah kebijakan.",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EJKSE"
    },
    {
      "name": "Indeks keyakinan konsumen",
      "value": "116,8",
      "dir": "down",
      "cadence": "Bulanan",
      "status": "serious",
      "why": "Prediktor terbaik approval kuartal berikutnya.",
      "source_url": "https://market.bisnis.com/read/20260811/93/1995165/nilai-tukar-rupiah-terhadap-dolar-as-hari-ini-11-agustus-2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "BI-Rate",
      "value": "5,25%",
      "dir": "up",
      "cadence": "Per rapat",
      "status": "serious",
      "why": "+50 bps Mei 2026 menahan rupiah.",
      "source_url": "https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/ruang-media/news-release/Pages/sp_2810726.aspx"
    },
    {
      "name": "Intensitas protes",
      "value": "Rendah–sedang",
      "dir": "flat",
      "cadence": "Ad-hoc",
      "status": "serious",
      "why": "Juni 2026 ratusan orang vs puncak 100.000 Agu 2025.",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Indonesian_protests"
    },
    {
      "name": "Kohesi koalisi",
      "value": "Utuh, defensif",
      "dir": "flat",
      "cadence": "Ad-hoc",
      "status": "serious",
      "why": "Koalisi menyebut survei \"bahan evaluasi\" — menjaga jarak.",
      "source_url": "https://www.kompas.id/artikel/kepuasan-terhadap-prabowo-turun-partai-koalisi-jadi-bahan-evaluasi"
    },
    {
      "name": "Inflasi y-o-y",
      "value": "2,88%",
      "dir": "up",
      "cadence": "Bulanan",
      "status": "warn",
      "why": "Dalam sasaran. Yang politis harga pangan, bukan indeks umum.",
      "source_url": "https://www.bps.go.id/id/pressrelease/2026/08/03/2601/inflasi-year-on-year--y-on-y--pada-juli-2026-sebesar-2-88-persen-.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Pertumbuhan PDB",
      "value": "5,29%",
      "dir": "down",
      "cadence": "Kuartalan",
      "status": "warn",
      "why": "Kuat secara teknis. Tak lagi jadi persepsi.",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20260805101818-4-756670/pertumbuhan-ekonomi-indonesia-kuartal-ii-2026-capai-529"
    },
    {
      "name": "Pengangguran terbuka",
      "value": "4,68%",
      "dir": "down",
      "cadence": "Semesteran",
      "status": "warn",
      "why": "Turun resmi, didominasi pekerja informal.",
      "source_url": "https://www.bps.go.id/id/pressrelease/2026/05/05/2574/tingkat-pengangguran-terbuka--tpt--sebesar-4-68-persen--rata-rata-upah-buruh-sebesar-3-29-juta-rupiah-.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Cadangan devisa",
      "value": "≈US$144 mrd",
      "dir": "down",
      "cadence": "Bulanan",
      "status": "warn",
      "why": "5,8 bulan impor. Ruang intervensi menipis.",
      "source_url": "https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/ruang-media/news-release/Pages/sp_2810726.aspx"
    }
  ],
  "index": {
    "composite": 54,
    "prev": {
      "value": 70,
      "label": "FEB 2026",
      "estimated": true,
      "note": "Dihitung ulang dengan rumus pilar ekonomi §3 — bukan penilaian manual. Input pasar Feb 2026 estimasi: rupiah ≈16.900, IHSG ≈6.900, IKK ≈120, cadangan devisa ≈US$146,2 mrd, inflasi 2,42%, PDB 5,61%; pilar elektoral 65, stabilitas 60. Delta menunjukkan arah, bukan presisi."
    },
    "pillars": [
      {
        "name": "Elektoral",
        "score": 38,
        "weight": 0.4,
        "color": "crit"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ekonomi",
        "score": 75,
        "weight": 0.35,
        "color": "warn"
      },
      {
        "name": "Stabilitas",
        "score": 49,
        "weight": 0.25,
        "color": "serious"
      }
    ],
    "disclaimer": "Konstruksi Rex Cap, bukan indeks baku. Bobot dan penskoran didokumentasikan di METHODOLOGY.md."
  },
  "fiscal": [
    {
      "key": "defisit_2025",
      "name": "Defisit APBN 2025 (audited)",
      "value": "2,81% PDB · Rp670,34 T",
      "period": "Realisasi audited 2025 (LKPP/BPK)",
      "status": "serious",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20260729095543-4-754654/bpk-ungkap-defisit-apbn-2025-capai-281-pdb",
      "why": "Hanya 0,19 poin di bawah plafon hukum 3% PDB — ruang fiskal makin sempit."
    },
    {
      "key": "defisit_2026",
      "name": "Defisit APBN 2026 (target)",
      "value": "2,68% PDB · Rp689,1 T",
      "period": "Target UU APBN 2026",
      "status": "warn",
      "source_url": "https://www.kompas.tv/ekonomi/619013/apbn-2026-disahkan-belanja-negara-tembus-rp3-842-7-triliun-defisit-2-7-persen",
      "why": "APBN 2026 sengaja memperlebar defisit untuk membiayai program prioritas."
    },
    {
      "key": "utang",
      "name": "Rasio utang pemerintah / PDB",
      "value": "41,26% PDB · Rp10.293,69 T",
      "period": "Posisi akhir Juni 2026 (DJPPR)",
      "status": "warn",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20260811185938-4-758409/data-baru-utang-pemerintah-rp10293-t-41-dari-pdb",
      "why": "Utang tembus Rp10.000 T; rasio masih di bawah plafon 60%, tapi beban bunga naik cepat."
    },
    {
      "key": "tax_ratio",
      "name": "Tax ratio (rasio perpajakan)",
      "value": "9,31% PDB",
      "period": "Realisasi 2025",
      "status": "serious",
      "source_url": "https://news.ddtc.co.id/berita/nasional/1817160/tax-ratio-2025-hanya-sebesar-931-dari-pdb",
      "why": "Turun dari 10,08% (2024); termasuk terendah di kawasan — membatasi belanja tanpa utang."
    },
    {
      "key": "primer",
      "name": "Keseimbangan primer",
      "value": "−Rp155,94 T (defisit)",
      "period": "Realisasi audited 2025 · Sem I 2026 surplus Rp85,1 T",
      "status": "warn",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20260729095543-4-754654/bpk-ungkap-defisit-apbn-2025-capai-281-pdb",
      "why": "Negatif berarti berutang bahkan untuk membayar sebagian bunga utang lama."
    },
    {
      "key": "batas",
      "name": "Batas hukum (UU 17/2003)",
      "value": "Defisit ≤3% · Utang ≤60% PDB",
      "period": "UU No. 17/2003 Pasal 12(3)",
      "status": "serious",
      "source_url": "https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Details/43017/uu-no-17-tahun-2003",
      "why": "Dua pagar fiskal utama; defisit 2025 (2,81%) sudah mendekati plafon 3%."
    }
  ],
  "triggers": [
    {
      "level": "crit",
      "title": "Rupiah menembus Rp18.000",
      "body": "Ambang psikologis. Historisnya mendahului penurunan approval 4–6 minggu."
    },
    {
      "level": "crit",
      "title": "Approval menembus 45%",
      "body": "Mitra koalisi mulai menghitung ulang. Perhatikan bahasa partai, bukan istana."
    },
    {
      "level": "crit",
      "title": "Dedi Mulyadi diuji H2H oleh 2 lembaga lain",
      "body": "Satu survei anomali. Tiga lembaga berbeda adalah realignment."
    },
    {
      "level": "serious",
      "title": "IKK di bawah 110",
      "body": "Empat bulan turun beruntun mengonfirmasi pelemahan bukan musiman."
    },
    {
      "level": "serious",
      "title": "Simulasi baru vs Anies atau Gibran",
      "body": "Mengisi data gap. Bila Prabowo di bawah 50% lawan Anies, peta berubah."
    },
    {
      "level": "warn",
      "title": "Kenaikan BI-Rate lanjutan",
      "body": "Intervensi valas gagal menahan kurs sendirian."
    },
    {
      "level": "warn",
      "title": "Protes >10.000 orang di >5 kota",
      "body": "Ambang isu sektoral berubah jadi tekanan nasional."
    }
  ],
  "marketAsof": "2026-08-16",
  "fetchStatus": {
    "ranAt": "2026-08-16T13:15:48.358Z",
    "usdidr": {
      "ok": true,
      "provider": "yahoo:IDR=X",
      "asof": "2026-08-16",
      "attempts": [
        "yahoo:IDR=X ✓ 246ms"
      ]
    },
    "ihsg": {
      "ok": true,
      "provider": "yahoo:^JKSE",
      "asof": "2026-08-16",
      "attempts": [
        "yahoo:^JKSE ✓ 133ms"
      ]
    },
    "anyFailed": false,
    "allFailed": false
  },
  "fiscalUpdated": "2026-08-16",
  "fiscalSource": "Kemenkeu / DJPPR / BPS (rilis resmi, entri manual)"
}