{
  "$schema": "./schema/polls.schema.json",
  "updated": "2026-08-16",
  "note": "Setiap entri wajib punya source_url, fieldwork, dan n. Entri tanpa metodologi lengkap ditolak oleh scripts/validate.mjs.",
  "approval": [
    {
      "t": 0,
      "v": 87.5,
      "inst": "Index Politica",
      "fieldwork": "2025-01-22/2025-01-29",
      "n": 1200,
      "moe": 3,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 0,
      "v": 79.3,
      "inst": "Indikator",
      "fieldwork": "2025-01-16/2025-01-21",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 0,
      "v": 72.5,
      "inst": "KedaiKOPI",
      "fieldwork": "2025-01-23/2025-01-29",
      "n": 1201,
      "moe": null,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 0,
      "v": 80.9,
      "inst": "Litbang Kompas",
      "fieldwork": "2025-01-04/2025-01-10",
      "n": 1000,
      "moe": 3.1,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 0,
      "v": 81.4,
      "inst": "LSI",
      "fieldwork": "2025-01-20/2025-01-28",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 4,
      "v": 81.2,
      "inst": "LSI Denny JA",
      "fieldwork": "2025-05-16/2025-05-31",
      "n": 1200,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 6,
      "v": 78,
      "inst": "Indonesian Social Survey",
      "fieldwork": "2025-07-11/2025-07-20",
      "n": 2200,
      "moe": 2.5,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 9,
      "v": 22,
      "inst": "Celios",
      "fieldwork": "2025-09-30/2025-10-17",
      "n": 1458,
      "moe": null,
      "status": "outlier",
      "flag": "Metodologi sampling berbeda dari lembaga lain pada periode sama; deviasi >50 poin dari median.",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 9,
      "v": 80.2,
      "inst": "Indeks Politica",
      "fieldwork": "2025-10-05/2025-10-12",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 3,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 9,
      "v": 77.7,
      "inst": "Indikator",
      "fieldwork": "2025-10-20/2025-10-27",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 9,
      "v": 86,
      "inst": "IPO",
      "fieldwork": "2025-10-09/2025-10-17",
      "n": 1200,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 9,
      "v": 74.8,
      "inst": "LSI Denny JA",
      "fieldwork": "2025-10-10/2025-10-19",
      "n": 1200,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 9,
      "v": 78.1,
      "inst": "Poltracking",
      "fieldwork": "2025-10-03/2025-10-10",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 9,
      "v": 82.4,
      "inst": "Pusat Riset Indonesia",
      "fieldwork": "2025-10-10/2025-10-20",
      "n": 1200,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 9,
      "v": 86.4,
      "inst": "Rumah Politik Indonesia",
      "fieldwork": "2025-10-09/2025-10-16",
      "n": 1200,
      "moe": 3,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 12,
      "v": 79.2,
      "inst": "Indekstat",
      "fieldwork": "2026-01-11/2026-01-25",
      "n": 1200,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 12,
      "v": 79.9,
      "inst": "Indikator",
      "fieldwork": "2026-01-15/2026-01-21",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2026/02/08/16085831/survei-indikator-tingkat-kepuasan-publik-terhadap-kinerja-prabowo-capai-799"
    },
    {
      "t": 12,
      "v": 54.5,
      "inst": "Median",
      "fieldwork": "2026-01-09/2026-01-13",
      "n": 1000,
      "moe": null,
      "status": "divergent",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election",
      "flag": "Menyimpang 24,7 poin dari median periode (Indikator 79,9%; Indekstat 79,2%) tanpa korroborasi lembaga lain. Bacaan Median berikutnya (Mar–Apr 2026) justru naik ke 71,8% saat lembaga lain turun — inkonsistensi internal. Ditampilkan, dikeluarkan dari perhitungan median."
    },
    {
      "t": 14,
      "v": 74.1,
      "inst": "Poltracking",
      "fieldwork": "2026-03-02/2026-03-08",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 14,
      "v": 66.4,
      "inst": "SMRC",
      "n": null,
      "moe": null,
      "fieldwork": "2026-02-26/2026-03-05",
      "status": "ok",
      "ingested": "tier-a",
      "source_url": "https://saifulmujani.com/kondisi-ekonomi-politik-dan-approval-rating-presiden/",
      "flag": "Ukuran sampel tidak dipublikasikan pada agregasi sumber."
    },
    {
      "t": 15,
      "v": 71.8,
      "inst": "Median",
      "fieldwork": "2026-03-30/2026-04-07",
      "n": 1300,
      "moe": null,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 16,
      "v": 72.2,
      "inst": "Poltracking",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "fieldwork": "2026-05-11/2026-05-17",
      "status": "ok",
      "ingested": "tier-a",
      "source_url": "https://poltracking.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/RILIS-SURVEI-NASIONAL-POLTRACKING-MEI-2026.pdf"
    },
    {
      "t": 17,
      "v": 59.75,
      "inst": "Indopol",
      "fieldwork": "2026-05-26/2026-06-01",
      "n": null,
      "moe": null,
      "status": "ok",
      "flag": "Sampel dan MoE tidak dipublikasikan lembaga.",
      "source_url": "https://m.jpnn.com/news/survei-indopol-approval-rating-prabowo-turun-drastis-ke-5975"
    },
    {
      "t": 18,
      "v": 81.5,
      "inst": "IDM",
      "fieldwork": "2026-07-01/2026-07-31",
      "n": null,
      "moe": null,
      "status": "outlier",
      "flag": "Metodologi tidak dipublikasikan; deviasi 30 poin dari median periode.",
      "source_url": "https://seruji.co.id/peristiwa/survei-idm-klaim-kepuasan-prabowo-81/"
    },
    {
      "t": 18,
      "v": 49.5,
      "inst": "Indikator",
      "fieldwork": "2026-07-01/2026-07-31",
      "n": null,
      "moe": null,
      "status": "disputed",
      "flag": "Angka beredar tanpa rilis resmi; lembaga membantah mempublikasikan.",
      "source_url": "https://seruji.co.id/politik/istana/indikator-bantah-publikasi-survei-juli-2026/"
    },
    {
      "t": 18,
      "v": 51.1,
      "inst": "SMRC",
      "fieldwork": "2026-07-05/2026-07-19",
      "n": 749,
      "moe": 3.7,
      "status": "ok",
      "source_url": "https://www.kompas.tv/nasional/682445/survei-smrc-kepuasan-publik-terhadap-kinerja-presiden-prabowo-51-1-persen"
    },
    {
      "t": 19,
      "v": 63,
      "inst": "IPO",
      "n": 1200,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "fieldwork": "2026-07-27/2026-08-03",
      "status": "ok",
      "ingested": "tier-a",
      "source_url": "https://www.liputan6.com/news/read/8265676/survei-ipo-ungkap-63-persen-publik-puas-kinerja-prabowo"
    }
  ],
  "electability": [
    {
      "t": 0,
      "prabowo": 69.4,
      "dedi": 1,
      "anies": 8.2,
      "gibran": 6.4,
      "label": "LSI · 20–28 Jan 2025",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 9,
      "prabowo": 47.6,
      "dedi": 17.1,
      "anies": 7.7,
      "gibran": 4.9,
      "label": "Rata-rata Poltracking + Indikator · Okt 2025",
      "n": 2440,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "derived": true,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 12,
      "prabowo": 48.9,
      "dedi": 16.9,
      "anies": 10.1,
      "gibran": 3.7,
      "label": "Indekstat · 11–25 Jan 2026",
      "n": 1200,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.idntimes.com/news/indonesia/survei-indekstat-elektabilitas-capres-2029-prabowo-dipepet-anies-kdm-00-jkxzp-w35465"
    },
    {
      "t": 13,
      "prabowo": 22.3,
      "dedi": 7.9,
      "anies": 8.5,
      "gibran": 12.2,
      "label": "Indonesian Public Institute · 30 Jan–5 Feb 2026",
      "n": 1241,
      "moe": 2.78,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election"
    },
    {
      "t": 14,
      "prabowo": 32.9,
      "dedi": 13.5,
      "anies": 9.2,
      "gibran": 4.2,
      "label": "Poltracking · 2–8 Mar 2026",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20260413173630-32-1347467/survei-poltracking-prabowo-demul-anies-tiga-capres-teratas"
    },
    {
      "t": 18,
      "prabowo": 14.5,
      "dedi": 35,
      "anies": 8.2,
      "gibran": 7.7,
      "label": "SMRC · 5–19 Jul 2026",
      "n": 749,
      "moe": 3.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.liputan6.com/news/read/8257280/survei-terbaru-smrc-ini-sosok-capres-dengan-elektabilitas-tertinggi"
    },
    {
      "t": 19,
      "prabowo": 23.4,
      "dedi": 21.7,
      "anies": 11.5,
      "gibran": 3.9,
      "label": "IPO · 27 Jul–3 Agu 2026",
      "n": 1200,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "source_url": "https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2026/08/09/13235361/elektabilitas-capres-versi-survei-ipo-prabowo-masih-di-posisi-teratas"
    }
  ],
  "matchups": [
    {
      "sim": "2 nama",
      "inst": "Poltracking",
      "period": "Okt 2025",
      "date": "2025-10-10",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "rows": [
        [
          "Prabowo",
          65.1,
          "s1"
        ],
        [
          "Anies Baswedan",
          10.3,
          "s3"
        ],
        [
          "Belum menentukan",
          24.6,
          "nd"
        ]
      ],
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election",
      "stale": true
    },
    {
      "sim": "2 nama",
      "inst": "Poltracking",
      "period": "Okt 2025",
      "date": "2025-10-10",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "rows": [
        [
          "Prabowo",
          65.8,
          "s1"
        ],
        [
          "Gibran Rakabuming",
          8.1,
          "s4"
        ],
        [
          "Belum menentukan",
          26.1,
          "nd"
        ]
      ],
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election",
      "stale": true
    },
    {
      "sim": "3 nama",
      "inst": "Indikator",
      "period": "Okt 2025",
      "date": "2025-10-27",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "rows": [
        [
          "Prabowo",
          68.4,
          "s1"
        ],
        [
          "Anies Baswedan",
          14.3,
          "s3"
        ],
        [
          "Gibran Rakabuming",
          9.8,
          "s4"
        ],
        [
          "Belum menentukan",
          7.5,
          "nd"
        ]
      ],
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election",
      "stale": true
    },
    {
      "sim": "3 nama",
      "inst": "Poltracking",
      "period": "Okt 2025",
      "date": "2025-10-10",
      "n": 1220,
      "moe": 2.9,
      "rows": [
        [
          "Prabowo",
          59.1,
          "s1"
        ],
        [
          "Anies Baswedan",
          9.9,
          "s3"
        ],
        [
          "Gibran Rakabuming",
          7.5,
          "s4"
        ],
        [
          "Belum menentukan",
          23.5,
          "nd"
        ]
      ],
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election",
      "stale": true
    },
    {
      "sim": "3 nama",
      "inst": "Litbang Kompas",
      "period": "Jul 2025",
      "date": "2025-07-05",
      "n": 400,
      "moe": 4.9,
      "rows": [
        [
          "Prabowo",
          36.9,
          "s1"
        ],
        [
          "Dedi Mulyadi",
          30.3,
          "s2"
        ],
        [
          "Anies Baswedan",
          10.1,
          "s3"
        ],
        [
          "Belum menentukan",
          22.7,
          "nd"
        ]
      ],
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2029_Indonesian_presidential_election",
      "stale": true
    },
    {
      "sim": "2 nama",
      "inst": "SMRC",
      "period": "Feb–Mar 2026",
      "date": "2026-03-01",
      "n": null,
      "moe": null,
      "rows": [
        [
          "Prabowo",
          50.5,
          "s1"
        ],
        [
          "Dedi Mulyadi",
          42.6,
          "s2"
        ],
        [
          "Belum menentukan",
          6.9,
          "nd"
        ]
      ],
      "source_url": "https://www.liputan6.com/news/read/8257280/survei-terbaru-smrc-ini-sosok-capres-dengan-elektabilitas-tertinggi",
      "stale": false
    },
    {
      "sim": "2 nama",
      "inst": "SMRC",
      "period": "Jul 2026",
      "date": "2026-07-19",
      "n": 749,
      "moe": 3.7,
      "rows": [
        [
          "Prabowo",
          28.3,
          "s1"
        ],
        [
          "Dedi Mulyadi",
          59,
          "s2"
        ],
        [
          "Belum menentukan",
          12.7,
          "nd"
        ]
      ],
      "source_url": "https://www.liputan6.com/news/read/8257280/survei-terbaru-smrc-ini-sosok-capres-dengan-elektabilitas-tertinggi",
      "stale": false
    }
  ],
  "timeAxis": [
    "Jan 25",
    "",
    "",
    "",
    "Mei 25",
    "",
    "Jul 25",
    "",
    "",
    "Okt 25",
    "",
    "",
    "Jan 26",
    "",
    "Mar 26",
    "Apr 26",
    "",
    "Jun 26",
    "Jul 26",
    "Agu 26"
  ]
}